Bitwise: Bitcoin could overtake gold as store-of-value and currency
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin is expanding beyond “digital gold” into a tool for cross-border trade. He argues Bitcoin’s addressable market could eventually surpass gold’s ~$34T value if it gains a dual role: store of value (like gold) and currency-like settlement (like the dollar).
A fresh catalyst highlighted is geopolitical pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. Hougan points to reports that Iran proposed using Bitcoin to pay maritime transit/tolls, positioning Bitcoin as an “apolitical alternative” that could route around weaponized, traditional financial rails.
Hougan reiterates his earlier target: Bitcoin could reach $1M per coin if it captures ~17% of the store-of-value market over the next decade, though he suggests targets may need to be revised higher if currency-like usage accelerates. For traders, Bitcoin’s current scale (~$1.4T market cap, ~$74.5k/BTC) remains far below gold (~$33.7T), but adoption signals cited include corporate holdings of 1.5M+ BTC and roughly 11,000 merchants accepting BTC.
Key takeaway: if policy and geopolitics keep reinforcing non-sanctioned payment and settlement demand, the “Bitcoin as currency + settlement” narrative can sustain bullish momentum.
Bullish
The story reinforces a demand driver for Bitcoin beyond price speculation: potential real-world use in cross-border settlement under geopolitical stress (e.g., the Strait of Hormuz transit-toll angle). That supports the “Bitcoin as currency + settlement” narrative, which can attract incremental buyers and sustain risk-on positioning.
In the short term, headlines around sanctions circumvention and trade/payment routes can boost sentiment and liquidity. In the long term, institutional accumulation and merchant/payment adoption cited by the article provide fundamental reinforcement for Bitcoin’s store-of-value/currency dual thesis. While the $1M/coin projection is not a near-term catalyst by itself, the updated linkage to international payment utility can keep bullish expectations elevated and volatility bid-sided.