Bitwise’s Matt Hougan: Bitcoin to Rise Gradually with Lower Volatility Over Next Decade
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, told CNBC he expects Bitcoin (BTC) to deliver steady, long-term gains over the next decade with lower volatility and fewer extreme annual swings. Hougan reiterated that 2026 could be a positive year for BTC. He noted recent drawdowns of around 30% are materially smaller than past cycle drops of 60%+, and attributed reduced volatility to persistent institutional buying and clearer U.S. regulation. Hougan added that much of the potential upside from U.S. policy and the current political cycle is likely already priced in, which may limit further marginal gains from government action. The coverage highlights Bitcoin’s recent price milestones (including highs near $109,000 in early 2025 and a 2024 peak around $125,100) and comparative analyses showing Bitcoin’s decade-long outperformance versus precious metals. For traders, the takeaway favors disciplined, long-horizon positioning, risk management, and monitoring macro liquidity conditions that could accelerate or temper price moves.
Bullish
Hougan’s comments frame Bitcoin as a long-horizon, lower-volatility appreciation asset rather than a vehicle for sharp speculative spikes. Key bullish drivers: institutional accumulation (reducing drawdowns and volatility), clearer U.S. regulatory signals (reducing event-driven uncertainty), and a multi-year positive outlook with 2026 flagged as potentially supportive. These factors point to a constructive medium- to long-term price environment. Short-term impact is likely muted: Hougan also warned that much of regulatory and political benefits may already be priced in, which limits immediate upside from policy news and supports a gradual, lower-volatility advance rather than sharp rallies. Traders should therefore favor position sizing, dollar-cost averaging, and monitoring macro liquidity (rates, ETF flows, institutional demand) for catalysts that could accelerate moves. Risk: if institutional flows slow or macro liquidity tightens, the reduced volatility regime could reverse, producing deeper corrections similar to past cycles.