Bitwise: Crypto winter start for Jan 2025, institutional money dey hide weakness as recovery fit near
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan tok say crypto winter start for January 2025 but e hide till end of 2025 because plenty institutional demand—especially ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). Bitwise estimate say institutional vehicles buy about 744,417 BTC (~$75bn) during dat time, so dem limit Bitcoin fall to around 40% from im October 2025 peak; without dat support BTC for fit fall near 60%. Ethereum drop about 53%; plenty retail-focused altcoins plunge 37%–75%. Crypto Fear & Greed Index reach “extreme fear.” Bitwise talk say crypto winters usually dey last ~13 months and e suggest market fit dey nearer de end than de start of dis cycle. Short-term volatility still dey: BTC drop near $73k on Feb 3 then bounce back above $76k after US funding bill pass; Santiment report about $30m DeFi liquidations. For one recent week BTC fall ~14%; large wallets (10–10,000 BTC) sell about 50,181 BTC in two weeks while retail addresses buy the dips. Analysts differ on how long e go last (some expect another 6–9 months), but increased institutional hiring, ETF adoption and clearer regulation fit reduce peak drawdowns versus past cycles. Key trading takeaways: institutional flows na primary support line for BTC/ETH, retail altcoins remain higher risk of deeper drawdowns, expect continued volatility around macro and funding events, and watch large-wallet flow and ETF/DAT buying as leading indicators of downside support or exhaustion.
Neutral
Di koko impact for Bitcoin na neutral-to-mixed. Institutional inflows (ETFs and DATs) don really reduce BTC drawdown — Bitwise dey estimate say about 744k BTC don buy, wey make potential peak losses comot from ~60% go around 40% — e provide structural support wey reduce downside tail risk compared to past cycles. That support na bullish factor to limit deep falls. But overall investor sentiment still weak (Crypto Fear & Greed dey “extreme fear”), retail-focused altcoins don lose much more, and short-term macro or funding events still dey trigger sharp volatility (Feb 3 drop and the rebound wey follow). Big wallet selling these past weeks show distribution pressure even as retail dey buy dips. Together, these forces mean: short-term price action fit still chop and dey prone to spikes on news or liquidations; institutional buying fit cap major drops but no be guarantee say rallies go last until sentiment and on-chain distribution proper positive. For traders this one mean manage risk well: watch ETF/DAT inflows and big-wallet flows as indicators of support, expect continued volatility around macro events, and treat many altcoins as higher-risk for bigger drawdowns. Overall, the news small positive for downside protection of BTC/ETH but e never yet signal clear bullish breakout — so classification neutral.