Bitwise: Circle selloff overdone as USDC “moat” supports $75B by 2030 amid CLARITY Act fears

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the Circle stock selloff is overdone. After a roughly 22% drop tied to the CLARITY Act draft and related “yield distribution” concerns, Hougan calls the market reaction “excessive.” He argues USDC’s payments utility is the real driver of stablecoin adoption, and that interest income is not the core reason people use stablecoins. Hougan reiterates a $75B Circle valuation target by 2030, based on Citigroup’s view that the global stablecoin market could reach about $1.9T by 2030 (bull case ~$4.0T). He highlights USDC’s position—around a quarter of total stablecoin supply and a stronger share in compliant onshore markets—suggesting regulation could even shift capital toward regulated issuers. Other analysts also push back. William Blair keeps an “outperform” stance, citing USDC as a payments “base layer,” Circle’s compliance infrastructure, banking relationships, and cross-chain integrations for cross-border B2B payments. Trading catalysts behind the selloff include renewed uncertainty over CLARITY Act rules for yield-like incentives, plus a late-Monday freeze of USDC balances in 16 business hot wallets that disrupted some exchanges/platforms and revived centralization concerns. Takeaway for traders: treat the Circle drop more as a sentiment-driven pullback than a structural break, assuming USDC adoption continues tracking the multi-year growth path cited by Citigroup.