Bitcoin: Bitwise’s $1.6M Forecast Meets a $76K Support Test

| cryptodaily.co.uk
Bitwise Asset Management’s long-term Bitcoin forecast sets a base-case target of $1.6 million by 2036, implying annualised returns of about 34.3%. The model assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of a projected $109.8 trillion gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market. Bitwise also points to institutional demand, including potential portfolio allocations of 1% to 5%, and expects growing institutional participation to weaken Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. Its scenarios range from $130,686 in a bear case to $3.67 million in a bull case. The firm cautions that regulation, quantum computing and AI advances pose risks, and that major drawdowns remain possible. The long-term Bitcoin outlook contrasts with a weak near-term technical picture. Bitcoin recently traded near $81,360, around its 50-day moving average, during its weakest October in six years. RSI stood at 45 and MACD was below its signal line. Traders are watching the 200-day moving average near $76,000; a daily close below it could put $65,000 in view, while a break above resistance at $85,000 and then $87,000 would support a recovery case. No bottom is confirmed, with a Federal Reserve decision approaching. Market positioning offers some counterpoints: Bitcoin held above its 50-week moving average for several weeks, open interest partly recovered, and positive funding rates suggested complacency. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $300 million in net inflows after two weeks of outflows. Ethereum continued to lag Bitcoin, with spot Ethereum ETFs posting a fourth consecutive week of net outflows. Bitwise’s Bitcoin forecast is a long-term model, not a near-term trading signal; volatility and macroeconomic risks remain important.
Neutral
The news sends mixed signals for Bitcoin’s price. Bitwise’s $1.6 million target, projected institutional demand and recent spot ETF inflows may reinforce long-term confidence, but the forecast depends on assumptions about Bitcoin’s share of the store-of-value market and is not a near-term catalyst. In the short term, weak momentum, Bitcoin’s position near its 50-day moving average and the unconfirmed $76,000 support test leave the market vulnerable to further declines. Positive funding rates may also indicate crowded or complacent positioning. A sustained break above $85,000–$87,000 could improve sentiment, while a close below $76,000 could expose $65,000. These opposing forces support a neutral overall assessment, with volatility likely to persist.