Bitwise’s Rasmussen: Circle stablecoins are “mispriced” as payments go multi-trillion
In an interview on CoinDesk’s Public Keys, Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen argued that investors are underestimating Circle’s opportunity as stablecoins scale toward a multi-trillion-dollar market.
Rasmussen expects stablecoin supply to grow from roughly $300B to $3T–$5T. He said Circle is well positioned as U.S. stablecoin regulation becomes clearer, and that its current market share gives it a head start.
A key point: Rasmussen believes the market is focused too narrowly on Circle’s reserve-based revenue. He said Circle is expanding into stablecoin payments infrastructure, which could become a major “second business.” He described Circle’s Arc as a layer-1 blockchain aimed at facilitating stablecoin payment activity, and suggested the next 12 months will show how Circle’s economics evolve as stablecoin adoption rises and Arc integrates with traditional finance.
Competition is increasing, including bank and consumer initiatives such as OpenUSD. However, Rasmussen downplayed near-term threats, saying the total market could expand fast enough for Circle to grow even with new entrants. He compared Circle’s potential payments trajectory to incumbents like Visa and Mastercard.
For traders, the core takeaway is that “Circle” and stablecoin infrastructure may attract more capital if the market starts pricing payments growth—not just issuing fees tied to reserves.
Bullish
Rasmussen’s thesis is constructive for the stablecoin complex: he frames Circle as both an issuer and an eventual payments infrastructure provider. If investors start believing that regulated stablecoin adoption will translate into higher recurring payment-related revenue, sentiment could improve and support upside re-rating.
This resembles earlier waves where the market shifted from “token issuance/fee capture” to “ecosystem/network value” narratives (e.g., when infrastructure rails gained attention after clearer regulation or major integrations). In the short term, traders may react to the optimism around U.S. regulatory clarity and Arc adoption signals, but the actual impact will depend on measurable traction.
In the long run, if Arc integrates with traditional financial flows and Circle’s economics expand beyond reserve-based income, the market may sustain a bullish bias for Circle-linked exposure. The key risk is timing: if Arc adoption lags or incumbents/banks accelerate their own stablecoin/payment stacks, the “infrastructure second business” narrative could face delays, limiting follow-through.