Heavy ETH ETF outflows raise risk of $2,500 test as institutions pull back
Ethereum has seen sustained spot-ETF outflows since Dec. 11, totaling roughly $853.9 million over two weeks, with only Dec. 22 recording a notable $84.6 million inflow. Major withdrawals have come from BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Ethereum Fund (FETH), signaling an institutional year‑end pullback. ETH traded near $2,900–$2,964 at the latest checks, down from August highs and roughly 12% lower week‑on‑week in earlier reports. Trading volume, derivatives volume and open interest have fallen, indicating reduced leverage and lower conviction. Technical indicators (RSI <50, MACD bearish, lower highs/lows) point to short‑term downside bias; key supports are $2,880–$2,980 with $2,500 flagged as a critical level if outflows continue. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw larger concurrent outflows (~$1.538B over the same period). By contrast, XRP ETF flows showed steady inflows and net assets above $1.16B, reflecting stronger institutional interest. For traders: monitor ETF flows, spot liquidity and on‑chain whale activity; manage risk with position sizing, stops near support levels, and watch RSI shifts for early divergence that could signal a reversal.
Bearish
Sustained, large spot-ETF outflows from institutional products (notably BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH) increase selling pressure on ETH and have coincided with lower on‑exchange volume, falling derivatives volume and reduced open interest. Technicals are bearish — RSI below 50, MACD favoring sellers, and lower highs/lows — supporting a near‑term downtrend. Key short‑term support sits at $2,880–$2,980; continued outflows and weakening liquidity would likely push ETH toward the highlighted $2,500 level. While occasional inflows or on‑chain whale absorption can buffer price drops, the balance of flows and indicators points to heightened downside risk in the short term. In the medium‑to‑long term, a sustained reversal would require renewed buying demand (ETF inflows, stronger spot liquidity or macro tailwinds) to rebuild leverage and trader conviction.