Bloomberg Predicts 90%+ Chance of Spot Altcoin ETF Approvals
Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised their odds for U.S. spot altcoin ETFs approval to 90% or higher, signaling a potential shift in the SEC’s stance. They believe the SEC now treats major altcoins like Solana, Ripple, Litecoin and Dogecoin as commodities, removing a key regulatory obstacle. Polymarket data aligns with this optimism, showing approval odds at 90% for SOL, 88% for XRP, 85% for LTC, 82% for DOGE and 80% for ADA. Despite strong regulatory sentiment, most altcoins remain in the red amid a prevailing Bitcoin season. Institutional interest in altcoin ETFs remains robust: a Coinbase–EY Parthenon survey finds 73% of institutions allocating to non-BTC/ETH assets and 68% interested in altcoin ETPs. However, 52% cite regulatory ambiguity as their top concern. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $6.4 million inflows on June 20, while spot Ethereum ETFs experienced $11.3 million outflows, highlighting varied investor confidence. As asset managers push for a first-to-file review system, approval of altcoin ETFs could unlock fresh inflows and broaden institutional crypto exposure.
Bullish
The raised approval odds and perceived SEC shift toward treating major altcoins as commodities are bullish signals for altcoin ETFs and the broader crypto market. Historical precedents, such as the long-awaited approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, show that ETF listings can unlock significant institutional inflows and improve market liquidity. In the short term, anticipation of approvals may drive speculative buying in SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE and ADA. Over the long term, cleared regulatory pathways and a first-to-file system could foster sustained growth in institutional allocations to altcoin ETFs, reducing volatility and elevating market stability.