90%+ Odds of SEC Approval for Spot Bitcoin ETF Amid Regulatory Optimism

Published: 2025-06-21 00:56:02 |

Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart now see better than 90% odds that the SEC will approve a physically-backed Bitcoin ETF. Citing constructive engagement with regulators, they regard approval as almost inevitable, though the launch date remains unclear—potentially within the next one to two months or delayed past October. Traders should note that such a Bitcoin ETF approval could trigger significant market inflows and heightened BTC volatility, marking a strategic milestone for crypto ETFs and offering enhanced regulatory clarity.

Bullish

Approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is widely seen as a major positive catalyst for BTC markets. In the short term, announcement and launch expectations can drive speculative buying and heightened trading volumes. Over the long term, institutional inflows via a regulated ETF could provide sustained demand, reduce volatility through increased liquidity, and enhance market maturity. Historical precedents show that ESG-type funds and new institutional vehicles often spur extended price rallies, supporting a bullish outlook.