BNB Price Drops 30% Since October, Wedge May Signal Rebound
BNB price has tumbled 30% from its October high of $1,369.85, trading around $958 on Nov. 12. User activity on the BNB Chain plunged, with daily transactions falling from 31 million on Oct. 8 to under 16 million, weakening network demand. Derivatives open interest also slumped from a record $2.97 billion to $1.35 billion, while the long-to-short ratio dipped below 1, reflecting growing bearish bets. On the daily chart, BNB price has formed a falling wedge pattern and is testing the upper trendline near the key $1,000 level. A decisive breakout could target $1,100–$1,300, potentially recouping most October losses. However, a bearish MACD and an RSI below 40 suggest BNB price may face further downward pressure before any sustained rally. Traders should watch for wedge breakout confirmation and monitor on-chain metrics, derivatives demand, and momentum indicators to gauge rebound strength.
Neutral
The news highlights both bearish on-chain metrics and a potential bullish wedge breakout, creating mixed signals. Declining BNB Chain transactions and lower derivatives open interest have historically pressured price (bearish). However, falling wedge patterns often precede rebounds when broken upward (bullish). With key momentum indicators still weak (MACD bearish, RSI below 40), short-term risk remains skewed downward. Yet a confirmed breakout above the $1,000 wedge resistance could trigger a mid-term rally toward $1,100–$1,300, mirroring past reversals seen after similar patterns in mid-2024. Thus, until traders see decisive confirmation and improved on-chain engagement, the impact is neutral: caution in the short term, potential upside if key levels hold.