XRP Faces Oversold Bounce Risk as Traders Warn of 50% Drop by Year-End
Traders are watching XRP closely after it fell roughly 71% from its 2022–2026 cycle peak, with a warning that XRP could drop another 50% by year-end. COINTURK and trader Bob Loukas point to XRP technical signals suggesting oversold conditions, including an RSI read described as oversold and a positive divergence that can sometimes trigger a short-term relief rally.
The article reviews weak 2026 momentum: XRP fell -10.6% in January, -16.2% in February, and -15.7% in the first week of June, with April the only green month (+2.13%). While RSI oversold and bullish divergence may spark a rebound, the broader altcoin market structure is still bearish.
A key added risk is broader market pressure, including weakness in BTC’s weekly trend. Loukas cautions that any XRP bounce may be sold into by larger players, and a more durable bottom may not form until autumn or winter 2026. Traders may want to monitor BTC momentum and follow-through after any XRP RSI oversold bounce attempts.
Bearish
Both summaries present a split setup for XRP: short-term indicators point to a possible oversold bounce (RSI oversold and positive divergence), but the dominant thesis is that the broader structure remains bearish and downside can extend. The 2026 drawdown data and Loukas’ 50% year-end risk align with a scenario where any XRP relief rally may be temporary and sold into, especially with BTC’s weekly weakness adding pressure. Longer-term, a more sustainable bottom is not expected until later in 2026 (autumn/winter), which keeps medium-term risk elevated even if traders can exploit short-lived XRP RSI oversold bounces.