Bank of England rate decision: BoE holds 3.75% as Middle East risks keep inflation above target

The Bank of England rate decision on June 18 is expected to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% (over 99% implied probability in prediction markets), marking a fourth straight hold by the Monetary Policy Committee. The last move was a cut in December 2025 from 4% to 3.75%; policy has stayed unchanged through January, March and April. UK CPI inflation is 2.8%, still above the 2% target, which limits room to accelerate easing. Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted Middle East conflict involving Iran as a key uncertainty. The article links geopolitical stress to disrupted energy supplies, raising the risk that consumer prices remain pressured and making the Bank of England rate decision focus on assessing external shocks rather than pre-emptive rate cuts. For crypto traders, this BoE hold is unlikely to directly move Bitcoin because crypto liquidity is more closely tied to the US Federal Reserve. However, a slower global rate-cut cycle can reduce global excess liquidity and increase the opportunity cost of holding risk assets while government yields and savings rates remain attractive. Traders should watch whether UK inflation continues moving toward 2% for clues on the next potential easing timeline. Until inflation convincingly falls, 3.75% functions as a practical floor and risk-asset liquidity may stay tighter—shaping BTC and ETH sentiment.