BOJ Likely to Hike Rates in April, Says Former Policy Board Member
Former Bank of Japan policy board member Andada Seiji told reporters that the BOJ is more likely to use abundant economic data available in April as the basis for a rate hike, rather than act on market speculation about a March move. Andada argued that raising rates in March would be riskier because it would rely on expectations rather than confirmed signals; April will provide more data to confirm a sustained improvement in underlying inflation. His view aligns with growing market expectations that BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda’s policy board may act in spring — earlier than many economists predicted after the December rate increase. The report notes this commentary is market information only and not investment advice.
Neutral
A prospective BOJ rate hike in April is likely to have a neutral overall effect on crypto markets. Direct impact from a single-country central bank action is typically limited for global crypto prices unless it signals a broader shift in global monetary policy or triggers major currency moves. Higher Japanese rates could strengthen the yen and modestly reduce local investors’ risk appetite, possibly causing short-term outflows from risk assets including crypto — a slightly bearish short-term effect. However, because the commentary emphasizes waiting for confirmed inflation data and mirrors market expectations, the move would be perceived as predictable, reducing volatility. Historically, predictable central bank tightening (when priced in) causes muted crypto reactions; unexpected or aggressive tightening causes sharper downside. In the short term traders should watch JPY liquidity, FX flows, and risk-on metrics (equities, vols). In the medium to long term, unless BOJ tightening becomes part of a synchronized global hawkish cycle, the structural drivers for crypto (adoption, macro liquidity, regulatory developments) will dominate, keeping the net impact neutral.