Bond Market Wahala Fit Trigger Next Bitcoin Buy Signal
One analyst dey warn say di rise for bond market stress fit be di next bitcoin buy signal, as credit spreads dey widen and investor fear don reach peak. Joao Wedson from Alphractal highlight say ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) na key indicator: past spikes for OAS don align with local Bitcoin cycle bottoms. Even though credit spreads still calm now, sudden widening for next quarter fit trigger fresh bitcoin accumulation phase before possible Q4 rally. Di macro backdrop support dis view: US debt don pass $37 trillion, daily interest payments dey exceed $2.6 billion, and 10-year Treasury yield don climb reach 4.3%. Strategy don buy 430 BTC (worth $51.4 million), but on-chain data show say big whales dey take profit and 32,000 dormant BTC worth $3.78 billion dey move. Dis ones mean short-term volatility but better setup for bitcoin later this year.
Bullish
Bond market stress don dey historically line up with Bitcoin cycle bottom, making credit spread wey dey widen a reliable buy signal for bitcoin. The big increase for US debt, higher Treasury yields, and credit downgrade dey intensify macro pressures, put bitcoin as beta alternative. Institutional demand still strong as Strategy buy 430 BTC show, but whale profit-taking and movement of dormant BTC dey cause short-term wahala. Like the COVID-19 credit stress wey happen early 2020, wey come before big bitcoin rally, spike for bond market stress fit trigger accumulation before Q4 upswing. Short term, expect gbege for volatility; long term, setup still good for bitcoin.