Bond-yield RSI cross signals possible 2026 Bitcoin bull run amid fragile market
Analysts flagged a rare bullish signal tied to the Stochastic RSI cross of the US 10-year and China 10-year yields on Bitcoin’s weekly chart — a pattern Coinvo Trading calls Bitcoin’s “most accurate” bull-run indicator. The same cross appeared four prior times and in October 2020 preceded a roughly 600% BTC rally into the 2021 highs. Additional bullish views cite the US dollar index (DXY): analyst Matthew Hyland expects BTC to breakout if DXY falls below 96, a pattern seen in prior rallies. Despite these indicators, onchain data points to market fragility. Glassnode reports a sharp negative flip in spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), from +$54.2m to -$194.2m week-over-week, indicating sell-side dominance and waning trader risk appetite. Spot Bitcoin ETF weekly flows also swung from a $1.6bn inflow to a $1.7bn outflow, signalling cooling institutional demand. Analysts note gold has reached new highs while Bitcoin remains rangebound, which some firms (Swan) view as a common prelude to a “violent” breakout. Overall, while macro-linked technical signals hint at a potential multi-year bull phase, persistent selling pressure, ETF outflows and defensive positioning could delay or limit an immediate BTC price recovery. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Neutral
The news contains both bullish technical signals and bearish onchain/flow data, producing a mixed outlook. Bullish: A rare Stochastic RSI cross between US10Y and CN10Y highlighted by Coinvo Trading historically preceded major BTC rallies (notably the Oct 2020 cross before the 2021 600% surge). DXY commentary adds conditional upside — a DXY drop below 96 has correlated with past BTC breakouts. These macro-technical signals suggest a potential multi-year bull run may be brewing, which is relevant for long-term traders and position holders. Bearish/neutral: Immediate market internals are weak. Glassnode’s spot CVD flipped sharply negative and spot BTC ETF weekly flows swung to sizable outflows, indicating reduced buyer interest and increased hedging or selling from institutions. Such sell-side dominance has in past cycles led to extended consolidation or delayed rallies despite favorable macro signals. Practical trading implications: In the short term, traders should expect rangebound action, elevated volatility and possible downside pressure until flows and CVD stabilize. Momentum traders may wait for confirmation (e.g., DXY <96, rebound in spot CVD, or renewed ETF inflows) before increasing long exposure. Longer-term investors could view the bond-yield RSI cross as a signal to accumulate gradually but should manage risk given present sell-side pressure. Historical parallel: The Oct 2020 yield-RSI cross preceded strong appreciation, but other favorable macro signals have previously failed to produce immediate rallies when liquidity and flows were negative, supporting a neutral classification.