Brent crude drops 11.7% as Trump pauses Iran strike threats after Riyadh talks

Trump announced a five-day pause on military strikes against Iran after closed-door talks in Riyadh involving foreign ministers from Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The previous week, he had threatened strikes including power-plant targets and issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets reacted sharply: Brent crude fell 11.7% in one session, dropping from about $109 to $99 per barrel. This was framed as a diplomatic pivot and a short-term “off-ramp” after heightened escalation tied to Operation Epic Fury. Key complications emerged during the mediation effort. Israel killed Ali Larijani, Iran’s national security chief, in a targeted strike on March 17, removing the interlocutor Western planners hoped to engage. Even so, Trump’s pause announcement followed the Riyadh discussions on March 23. However, the deal foundation is still weak. Iran denies any direct negotiations with the United States, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, after more than three weeks of disruption. The conflict toll cited includes roughly 9,000 US airstrikes, more than 140 Iranian naval vessels damaged or destroyed, and documented civilian deaths by HRANA. For traders, the main signal is “hope without resolution”: Brent crude’s selloff reflects relief, but the energy chokepoint is still impaired. Analysts cited in the article project Brent could settle around $91 if Iranian exports remain constrained through 2026. Inflation expectations and risk appetite may therefore stay sensitive to renewed escalation vs. any credible ceasefire. Crypto link: geopolitical-driven oil spikes can influence inflation expectations and central-bank policy, which often affects BTC and broader risk assets via liquidity conditions. Watch the pause expiry, since renewed strikes could push prices back above $109, while a real ceasefire could move oil closer to the $70–$80 band.