Brent crude price spike risk resurges as Iran Strait of Hormuz turmoil returns

Renewed US military strikes in July have reignited concerns over oil market price spike risk tied to the Iran conflict. Analysts warn that Brent crude volatility is back in focus after the collapse of a fragile ceasefire and renewed disruption risk near the Strait of Hormuz, where about a fifth of global oil supply transits daily. On March 4, the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, driving Brent crude up more than 55% from roughly $72 pre-war levels to peaks near $119–$120. Prices later partially recovered as tanker flows improved, easing toward a $70–$82 range by July. But with renewed military action, analysts project that Brent crude price spike risk could persist. A Reuters poll in March revised 2026 Brent forecasts to an average of $82.85 per barrel, up from a prior $63.85 (nearly a 30% increase). If tanker operations are choked off more aggressively, prices could push well above $100 per barrel for a sustained period, adding pressure via inflation expectations (estimated +0.8% to global inflation). Crypto market implications appear limited. The article notes minimal correlation between oil price spikes and digital asset movements during the crisis period; Bitcoin and other major tokens largely traded on their own dynamics rather than tracking oil swings. That suggests Brent crude price spike risk is more likely to affect macro sentiment and risk appetite than to directly drive crypto price action.