Brent crude jumps above $105 as WTI nears $101 on Iran talks breakdown
Brent crude rose above $105 and WTI neared $101 on Monday (May 11) after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end a 10-week conflict. The main driver for oil traders is renewed Strait of Hormuz risk: Iran warned countries enforcing sanctions could face problems using the waterway, while reports of drone attacks near Qatar and interceptions involving the UAE and Kuwait suggest the earlier ceasefire may be unraveling.
Brent crude also regained ground after last week’s losses as insurers, energy groups, and shipping operators reportedly delayed shipments due to higher uncertainty, tighter routes, and rising insurance costs. The International Energy Agency cautioned the disruption could be the largest energy supply shock on record—an environment that typically lifts inflation expectations and raises broad market volatility.
For crypto traders, this is a clear risk-sentiment catalyst. In the short term, renewed Middle East escalation and any further Hormuz shipping disruption can pressure risk assets and liquidity (often bearish for BTC/ETH). In the longer term, if the stalemate persists and supply shock fears become sustained, expectations for tighter financial conditions can continue to weigh on crypto. Watch whether the Strait of Hormuz can reopen safely and whether the US-Iran tone shifts—either outcome can quickly change the volatility regime around oil, then spill over into crypto correlations.
Bearish
Oil is reacting to a credible supply-risk channel (Strait of Hormuz disruption). With insurers and shippers reportedly delaying cargoes and the IEA flagging this as potentially the largest supply shock on record, the likely macro effect is higher volatility and risk-off positioning. That typically reduces crypto appetite and liquidity in the short term. If escalation persists and shipping constraints become structural, the longer-term effect can be continued pressure from tighter financial conditions and inflation-risk pricing. Any sign that Hormuz can reopen safely—or that US-Iran rhetoric de-escalates—could reverse the flow and improve sentiment quickly.