BTC Price Bear Flag Near Support: USDT Dominance, Head-and-Shoulders Break Risk
Bitcoin (BTC) is testing the lower area of a long bear-flag structure, with traders watching whether a breakdown is imminent or if a bounce can hold the range. The article highlights USDT dominance as a key driver: USDT is seen in a continuation bull pattern that could push dominance toward ~10% (a new all-time high), implying capital rotation from BTC/crypto into stablecoins.
On the technical side, BTC is described as forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, with price dipping below the neckline. However, support is framed as multi-layered: the ~$67,800 level aligns with the Volume Profile Visible Range “point of control” (VPVR), making the next daily candle close critical. Resistance is also noted near the major ~$69,000 level, tied to the 50-day SMA; a Friday open below this zone raises the odds of confirmation for further weakness.
If bears win, initial breakdown targets include ~$66,000, and the broader weekly outlook points to potential deeper downside (including a possible move toward ~$50,000). The projected bear-flag measured move is cited with a target around ~$38,000, while the longer-term “bottom” timing is questioned, with commentary suggesting a September-like timeframe consistent with the last bear market’s duration.
Overall, the focus is on whether BTC can reclaim resistance and negate the head-and-shoulders breakdown, or whether stablecoin inflows (USDT) and bearish continuation patterns drive another leg lower.
Bearish
The article’s core message is bearish for BTC in the near term. It combines (1) a continuation bear-flag setup, (2) a head-and-shoulders breakdown risk (price below the neckline), and (3) an implied risk-off flow via rising USDT dominance toward ~10%. Historically, when stablecoin dominance rises during drawdowns, traders often expect liquidity to remain sidelined, which can suppress rebounds and extend sell pressure—similar to prior market phases where “stablecoin inflow + breakdown confirmation” led to further downside before a sustainable bottom formed.
Short-term, the next daily candle close and the BTC reclaim/rejection around ~$69,000 (50-day SMA area) and ~$67,800 (VPVR point of control) are decisive. A confirmed failure there typically triggers momentum selling and accelerates moves toward the next supports (~$66,000).
Long-term, the piece argues the bear market may still be early, pointing to deeper targets (down toward ~$50,000 and potentially ~$38,000) and a slower bottoming process consistent with prior bear-market timelines. Traders should therefore be cautious about treating any bounce as the start of a durable reversal until BTC invalidates the breakdown structure and USDT dominance stops rising.