BTC Bottom “Almost In” as Bitcoin Drops 14% Below $62K
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick says the BTC bottom may be “almost in” after a sharp weekly selloff. Bitcoin slid about 14% on the week to below $62,000, briefly touching ~$61,463 before rebounding to around $64,000. The drawdown leaves BTC roughly 51% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,277.
Kendrick’s BTC bottom call is built on three pillars: (1) a likely Strategy buyback pattern after past BTC sales (he compares to Strategy’s December 2022 activity, where a quick repurchase followed sales); (2) resilient spot Bitcoin ETF holdings despite recent stress—cumulative net inflows since launch remain about $54.26B and total BTC held across 11 US-listed funds is ~674,000 BTC; and (3) easing oil-driven inflation pressure as US–Iran ceasefire prospects improve.
However, trading signals also warn of caution. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted three straight weeks of outflows, with cumulative redemptions of about $4.21B and a daily outflow of ~$396.6M on Wednesday. ETF AUM fell to ~$82.83B, while Glassnode flagged the ~$83,000 ETF cost basis as a near-term ceiling where BTC was recently rejected. Options markets turned more defensive: 30-day at-the-money implied volatility rose to ~41.4, and put premiums stayed elevated.
Net takeaway for traders: Kendrick argues the BTC bottom is a plausible near-term scenario if the buyback/ETF/macro “pillars” line up. Yet ETF outflow momentum and higher implied volatility suggest risk remains high around current levels.
Neutral
This news is framed as a potential BTC bottom call, which is naturally bullish in narrative, but the supporting market data is mixed. Kendrick (Standard Chartered) highlights a “BTC bottom almost in” thesis tied to (a) a likely Strategy buyback pattern, (b) comparatively intact spot Bitcoin ETF holdings, and (c) a macro tailwind from easing oil/inflation pressure if US–Iran ceasefire prospects improve. That aligns with how prior “capitulation then buyback” episodes have sometimes produced tradable bounces once forced sellers pause.
At the same time, the article underscores clear bearish pressure: three consecutive weeks of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows (over $4.21B cumulative) and elevated option-implied volatility (ATM ~41.4). Rejection near the ~$83,000 ETF cost basis suggests upside attempts are being sold. Historically, when ETF outflows persist and implied vol stays elevated, rallies often struggle to sustain until flow reverses.
Net effect for traders: neutral. You may see short-term relief rallies if the buyback/macro story gains traction, but the trade risk remains elevated because flow data and derivatives positioning have not yet confirmed that the BTC bottom is fully “in.”