BTC Bottom Not Confirmed Until $88,880 Breaks
Bitcoin (BTC) is up nearly 20% in May, but analysts warn the BTC bottom is not confirmed yet. CryptoQuant says BTC must reclaim and hold $88,880 to validate a sustainable bottom, otherwise rallies may fail.
Key realized-price resistance levels remain overhead: $88,880 (3–6 months holders), $93,450 (12–18 months), and the largest wall at $111,850 (6–12 months). Until BTC stays above $88,880 rather than briefly spiking and falling back, selling pressure is likely during rebounds.
Another warning comes from Ali Martinez, who compares the current structure to the 2022 bear-market bottom. He flags potential rejection near the $80,000–$82,000 area and says BTC could later drop below $55,000 if the pattern repeats. He also notes sell walls around $79,000–$80,000 that have rejected price multiple times.
Derivatives data from Bitunix adds caution: open interest fell 5.13% in 24 hours, while funding rates remain negative overall but the negative magnitude is easing. This suggests leverage is cooling and bearish hedging is less intense, yet positioning is still cautious.
Traders focus on whether BTC can break and hold $88,880; failing that, upside attempts may meet heavy resistance.
Bearish
这条消息的核心是：BTC 的“底部确认”被条件化为必须突破并持续站稳 88,880 美元。文章强调了多档由不同持币成本区间形成的 realized price 阻力（88,880、93,450、111,850），并且指出如果只是短暂冲高回落，卖压仍会主导。
同时，技术/结构对照（Ali Martinez 将其类比 2022 底部走法）与市场微观结构信号（$79,000–$80,000 卖墙、多次拒绝；资金费率负值仍在、但幅度收敛；OI 下滑）共同指向：短期上涨更可能是“反弹”而非趋势性见底。
历史上类似“关键阻力位未能站稳→再次回落”的情形，常见于熊市末期的试探性反弹阶段；一旦 88,880 美元失守，交易面可能出现止盈/再度换仓，导致价格在 80k 附近反复震荡甚至二次下探。长期看，如果 BTC 能最终稳住 88,880 并越过更高的 realized 阻力带，底部确认概率才会显著提高；但在当前条件未满足前，风险偏向下行与反弹受限。