BTC Dips Below $101K Miner Breakeven — Short-Term Rally Possible
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the estimated miner breakeven of $101,000 on Jan 12, 2026, a zone historically associated with cycle lows and potential rebounds. On-chain analysts (Wise Crypto, CryptosRus) report improving capital flows and mid-cycle on-chain metrics (Puell Multiple, MVRV) that do not signal an overheated top. Technical indicators are mixed: monthly RSI slipped under 60 but is curling up (EGRAG CRYPTO), while losing weekly moving averages above $101K may have shifted structure lower with resistance near $96,000 (Sunny Mom, CryptoQuant). Macro headlines — a probe involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell reported by the New York Times — added political uncertainty; BTC nonetheless gained ~1% on the news, per VanEck’s Matthew Sigel. Price action: ~1% up in 24h, ~-1% weekly, ~+modest monthly, and ~27% below the October 2025 peak near $126,000. The bullish case hinges on proximity to miner cost, returning spot fund flows, and potential dollar weakness if political pressure affects Fed policy. Alternate views warn fragile technicals and possible further downside if buyers remain hesitant around $92K–$93K.
Neutral
The article presents conflicting signals that justify a neutral market stance. Bullish elements: BTC trading below the miner breakeven historically aligns with cycle lows and can attract buying; on-chain metrics (improving capital flows, non-overheated Puell Multiple and MVRV) and renewed spot fund flows support a short-term rebound thesis. Macro political news that could weaken the dollar is a tailwind for crypto. Bearish elements: key technicals are fragile — monthly RSI under 60 and loss of weekly moving averages above $101K indicate downside risk, with heavy resistance near $96K and possible buyer hesitancy around $92K–$93K. For traders: short-term trading opportunities exist for mean-reversion/pullback bounces near miner cost, but risk management is essential because breaking the cited support and weekly averages could accelerate downside. Historically, dips below miner cost have preceded cycle troughs that later reversed; however, timing varies and can be accompanied by extended volatility. Therefore, treat this as a potentially tradable short-term bounce (bullish catalyst) within an uncertain technical backdrop (bearish risk), warranting a neutral overall classification.