Negative Coinbase Premium Signals US Selling — BTC Faces Risk to $66.8K
Bitcoin weakness has intensified after the Coinbase Premium index — the price gap between Coinbase (US-focused) and other exchanges — flipped negative in mid-December and stayed below zero for more than five weeks. The latest episode pushed BTC under $87,000 as US spot flows and ETF-related selling persisted: US spot Bitcoin ETFs reported roughly $1.72 billion of outflows over five days, while crypto investment products saw about $1.7 billion in weekly outflows. On-chain indicators show mixed behaviour: short-term holders have been buying the dip (STH net position change reached yearly highs), while long-term holders continue to take profits. Technical and macro signals point to elevated downside risk. Veteran trader Peter Brandt flagged a completed bear channel with a measured target near $66,800 (about a 22% decline from current levels) unless BTC reclaims near-term support around $93,000. Historical precedents of prolonged negative Coinbase Premium preceded large drawdowns (about 18% in late 2024 and 32% in early 2025). Key short-term support sits roughly between $80,000–$84,000; a failure to regain $93k/$104k levels could prompt further losses, while rising open interest and funding rates suggest fresh leveraged longs that may be vulnerable to a flush to the mid-$80k or mid-$90k area. Traders should monitor Coinbase Premium trends, ETF flow data, on-chain holder flows, open interest/funding, and the $93k and $80k–$84k support zones for trade signals and risk management.
Bearish
The combined evidence indicates a bearish outlook for BTC. A sustained negative Coinbase Premium signals weaker US demand and correlated selling from US spot ETFs, supported by reported multi-day outflows (~$1.72B) and weekly outflows from crypto products (~$1.7B). Technical analysis (completed bear channel with a measured target ~ $66.8K) and historical precedents of prolonged negative premium preceding large drawdowns reinforce downside risk. Although short-term holders appear to be buying dips, long-term holders are taking profits and rising open interest/funding rates suggest new leveraged longs that could be liquidated in a pullback. Key levels to watch: failure to reclaim $93K (or higher near $104K) increases the probability of a move toward the $80K–$84K zone and the measured $66.8K target. For traders, this implies elevated risk of further declines, the potential for volatility from forced liquidations, and the need to hedge or reduce directionally long exposure until premium and ETF flows stabilise.