BTC and ETH Echo 2022 Breakdown — Faster Cycle Could Mean Quicker Bottom
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) price charts are showing a technical pattern similar to the 2021–2022 cycle: a market top, loss of the 50‑week exponential moving average (50W EMA), an aggressive corrective drop and then bottoming. Analysts highlighted both BTC and ETH recently trading below the 50W EMA, a long‑term trend indicator whose breach in 2022 preceded deeper corrections. Market observers note the sequence “lines up” with the prior cycle but warn it is not a perfect fractal. A key distinction this cycle is speed: the 2025–26 rally and distribution compressed price gains into a shorter timeframe, suggesting the corrective phase — and thus the eventual base formation — could unfold faster than in 2022 if time symmetry holds. Traders are watching weekly closes, moving averages and volume for confirmation; no bottom has been confirmed. The article emphasizes that macro liquidity and broader market conditions remain decisive factors, so technical similarity alone does not guarantee the same outcome.
Bearish
The article points to BTC and ETH breaking the 50‑week EMA and following a sequence (top → 50W EMA loss → aggressive dump → bottom) that in 2022 preceded larger drawdowns. Loss of a long‑term moving average is typically a bearish structural signal that can trigger further selling as trend‑following funds and long‑term holders reduce exposure. The faster 2025–26 rally raises the risk of a compressed but sharp correction: rapid tops often lead to rapid declines, increasing short‑term volatility and downside pressure. Short term: expect elevated selling pressure around weekly closes under the 50W EMA, higher liquidation risk on leverage, and choppy price action as traders seek a base. Medium to long term: if macro liquidity improves or on‑chain fundamentals strengthen, a base could form more quickly than 2022, enabling a recovery; absent that, prolonged weakness is possible. Historical parallel: the 2022 breach of the 50W EMA preceded an extended bear market, so traders should size risk, use stops, and monitor volume and weekly closes for confirmation before assuming a quick bottom.