BTC, ETH and Major Altcoins Stage Bounce but Downtrend Still Intact — Key Levels to Watch

Published: 2025-11-26 20:12:30 |

Bitcoin and several top altcoins have launched a relief rally, but technicals suggest bearish control remains intact. BTC recovered toward ~$89,800 but faces resistance at the 20-day EMA (~$93,400); failure there risks a retest of $80,600 and a deeper slide to $73,777, while a decisive break above the 20-day EMA would open the path toward $100,000. Analysts quoted include Peter Brandt (calling the move a “dead cat bounce”), Timothy Peterson (AI-based model: 15% chance BTC closes below $84,500 in 2025 and <50% to reclaim $100k by Dec 31), and Augustine Fan (expects a $82k–$92k range with downside if price falls below $78k). Ether’s recovery meets resistance near $3,000 and the 20-day EMA (~$3,120); upside could reach $3,350, but a drop below $2,623 risks collapse to $2,400. XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, HYPE, BCH and LINK all show short relief rallies that are likely to encounter selling at their 20-day EMAs or recent breakdown levels. Key short-term levels highlighted: XRP 20-day EMA ~$2.20 and support $1.61; BNB breakdown ~$860 with support $790/$730; SOL resistance ~144 with supports at $126/$95; DOGE support $0.14 and resistance ~0.16; ADA support $0.38, resistance $0.50; HYPE resistance $35.50, risk to $29.30/$24; BCH support $443 or upside to $606; LINK 20-day EMA ~$13.88, support $10.94. Implication for traders: expect rallies to be met with selling — trades should emphasize risk management, watch the 20-day EMA and key supports for breakdowns that would confirm continuation of the broader downtrend. This article is market commentary and not investment advice.

Bearish

The article describes relief rallies across BTC and major altcoins that are meeting resistance at their 20-day EMAs and recent breakdown levels — a classic sign that rallies are likely ’sell the news’ opportunities rather than trend reversals. Multiple respected voices (Peter Brandt calling it a dead-cat bounce; AI and analysts giving low probabilities for a decisive bullish breakout) reinforce the tentative nature of the move. Historical precedent: rallies that fail at short-term EMAs and retest key supports (e.g., 80–84k for BTC) often precede continuation of the prior downtrend. Short-term impact: increased volatility and opportunities for short-term bounce trades and range trades, with elevated risk of sharp downside if key supports break. Long-term impact: unless BTC clears and holds above the 20-day EMA and then the 50-day SMA, the broader downtrend remains in force — expecting further distribution and periodic bearish continuation until sustained higher-timeframe breakout levels are reclaimed. Traders should prioritize stop placement, position sizing, and watchlisted support breaks for trend confirmation.