Traders Grow Bullish on BTC and ETH Near-Term Despite ‘Extreme Fear’
Prediction-market data show rising odds of near-term price gains for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) even as overall market sentiment remains in “Extreme Fear.” Myriad markets swung in favor of a BTC pump to $84,000 (with a notable simultaneously priced drop to $55,000 retaining significant odds). BTC rallied from below $63k to around $67k–$69k during the week. ETH climbed from about $1,815 to over $2,100 before settling near $2,023, shifting prediction markets toward a move to $3,000 while dump odds narrowed. Other platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket) also show reduced odds of deeper yearly declines: Kalshi puts BTC’s chance of falling below $55k at ~66% (down ~10% week-over-week) and ETH below $1,500 at ~63%. Despite these shifts, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “Extreme Fear” for most of February. On-chain indicators and ETF flows offered support: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a large one-day inflow (~$506M), and on-chain data signalled easing selling pressure amid a tech-stock-led rally after NVIDIA’s earnings. Some analysts still warn of lower lows—CryptoQuant points to a bear-market bottom near $55k for BTC, and Standard Chartered projects BTC could drop to $50k and ETH to $1,400 before sustained rebounds. Predictors on Polymarket assign only ~19% odds that BTC or ETH will reach new highs by end-2026. Key takeaways for traders: prediction markets show growing short-term bullish positioning for BTC and ETH, ETF inflows and on-chain data offer near-term support, but sentiment metrics and some institutional analyses still point to potential deeper retracements before larger recoveries.
Neutral
The piece contains mixed signals that justify a neutral market impact. Short-term indicators and trader positioning are leaning bullish: prediction markets across Myriad, Kalshi and Polymarket have increased odds for near-term BTC and ETH rallies, on-chain data show easing selling pressure, and U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a large inflow (~$506M). These factors can support continued short-term upward moves and increased trading activity. However, sentiment measures (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) remain in “Extreme Fear,” and institutional/analytic calls (CryptoQuant, Standard Chartered) still warn of lower bottoms—BTC targets around $50k–$55k and ETH near $1,400—before sustained recoveries. Predictors also assign low odds (~19%) to new all-time highs by end-2026. Historically, similar patterns (prediction-market optimism + ETF inflows vs. poor sentiment and analyst warnings) have produced short squeezes or rallies that later retrace as macro or on-chain weaknesses reappear. For traders: expect higher short-term volatility and options/derivatives activity. Short-term: potential for continued rallies, momentum trading opportunities, and quick profit-taking; use tight risk management and watch ETF flows and on-chain selling metrics. Long-term: caution remains—position sizing should account for possibility of deeper retracements before larger recoveries. Overall, the news neither strongly favors a sustained bull trend nor signals imminent collapse, so a neutral classification best fits.