BTC price prediction turns bullish as funding hits 2023 lows and targets $125K
BTC price prediction turns aggressively bullish after CoinDesk data showed perpetual funding rates fell to the most negative level since 2023 on a 7-day moving average (around -0.005% per Glassnode). ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria argues this signals heavy short positioning and could force liquidations if BTC continues rising. His BTC price prediction target is $125,000 within 30–60 days.
Market context: BTC was changing hands near $74,700 in early Asia, up ~3.5% on the week but down ~0.4% on the day. While funding has been persistently negative even as price has climbed from the mid-$60,000s through March and April, shorts have effectively been paying longs for weeks.
How traders should read the signal: In perpetual futures, negative funding means shorts pay longs, typically appearing when positioning is one-sided. Historically, episodes of similarly extreme negative funding (e.g., March 2020, mid-2021, the 2022 FTX crash bottom, and August 2024’s yen-carry unwind) have lined up with local price lows and sharp recoveries.
Key counterpoint: on-chain data suggests many active BTC holders are underwater versus cost basis, creating a potential “wall of worried holders.” Even if a squeeze starts, rallies toward $125,000 may face supply from holders who accumulated roughly in the $75,000–$95,000 range during 2025.
Catalyst calendar: (1) April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry—extension may lift risk assets; a failure could push BTC toward a ~$68,000 support floor. (2) FOMC on April 28–29—any dovish Powell tilt would support BTC carry. (3) CLARITY Act committee timing in early May could add a crypto-specific trigger.
Bottom line: BTC price prediction is increasingly squeeze-driven, but whether $125K becomes attainable depends on absorbing cost-basis supply and macro/geopolitical clarity.
Bullish
Funding rates are at their most negative since 2023 (7-day MA near -0.005%), which typically signals crowded short positioning and raises the odds of liquidation-driven upside. This resembles past extreme-negative-funding periods that preceded sharp recoveries (e.g., 2020/2021/FTX bottom and parts of 2024). In the short term, traders may press longs into the squeeze setup, especially with near-term catalysts (April 22 geopolitical timeline, April 28–29 FOMC). Over the long run, the thesis can extend if macro conditions stay supportive; however, on-chain “underwater holder” supply (“wall of worried holders”) could slow or cap the path to $125K unless the market’s cost-basis liquidity is absorbed sequentially and geopolitical/macro risks resolve favorably.