Bitcoin Bottom Signal: BTC–Gold Decoupling Hits Multi-Year Lows
A new Bitcoin bottom thesis is gaining traction as BTC–gold correlation falls to multi-year lows. The article cites a March correlation of about -0.9 between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold, the most negative since late 2022. It also notes BTC bottomed later around $15,600 and then entered a roughly two-year rally.
Trader Michaël van de Poppe argues the BTC/gold ratio is the key timing tool. The ratio has declined about 70% and appears to be stabilizing after the sharp drop. Historically, similar BTC/gold ratio declines (2014, 2018, 2022) lined up with major cycle bottoms, suggesting capitulation may be exhausting.
The piece links decoupling to a broader re-pricing of Bitcoin’s role versus gold—shifting investor perception between “risk asset” and “store of value.” It adds that traders should seek confirmation from on-chain and market-structure signals, such as reduced exchange reserves, long-term holder accumulation, and lower miner selling pressure.
Macro factors are also flagged: central-bank rate paths, inflation expectations, ETF/institutional flows, and regulatory clarity can all affect how capital rotates between BTC and gold.
If BTC–gold decoupling persists, the article expects a new support zone and a recovery trajectory that may differ from past cycles due to larger institutional participation. The outlook is optimistic, but it stresses confluence and ongoing monitoring rather than a guaranteed reversal.
Bullish
该文章的关键信号是：BTC与黄金的相关性跌到多年极端负值（约-0.9），且BTC/黄金比率下滑约70%后进入整固。历史上类似“极端脱钩/比率大幅下探—随后触底并反弹”的模式曾出现在2014、2018、2022，因而为交易者提供了偏正面的周期定价线索。
对交易活动的直接影响：短期内，相关性与比率进入“稳定/整固”阶段往往意味着卖压可能减弱，市场可能从快速下跌转向横盘消化，这通常有利于降低进一步大幅下探的概率。但这不是立即的趋势反转确认，仍需要链上与市场结构的“共振”来验证（如交易所余额下降、长期持有者增持、矿工抛售下降等）。
长期角度：若BTC能持续与黄金脱钩，可能意味着其与传统避险资产的相关性结构发生改变，资金流入的驱动因素从单一宏观避险逻辑转向更独立的BTC叙事（例如机构配置与ETF资金）。在这种情况下，新的支撑区与更健康的反弹斜率更可能出现。
风险点在于宏观冲击或监管/流动性变化可能打断相关性修复路径，因此交易者应把它视为“偏看涨的概率信号”，并结合其他指标等待确认，而不是单凭相关性做确定性押注。