Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Halves in 2025 as Gold Outperforms BTC
The bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell roughly 50% in 2025, dropping from about 40 ounces of gold per BTC in December 2024 to around 20 ounces by Q4 2025. This compression reflects a macro-driven repricing that favored gold rather than a structural collapse in bitcoin demand. Key drivers: central banks bought 254 tonnes of gold through October 2025 (Poland led with 83 tonnes); global gold ETF holdings rose by ~397 tonnes in H1 2025 and reached a record ~3,932 tonnes by November. Gold returned ~63% year-to-date and surpassed $4,000/oz in Q4 despite a generally tight US rate backdrop; higher VIX and elevated geopolitical risk supported safe-haven and reserve demand. Bitcoin also posted positive returns in 2025 and reached six-figure prices aided by spot-BTC ETF adoption, but spot-BTC ETF assets under management fell from $152B in July to about $112B by November amid price pullbacks and net outflows. On-chain data show long-term bitcoin holders sold aggressively—Glassnode reports ~300,000 BTC sold in October and over 500,000 BTC sold by LTHs during H2—reducing LTH supply from ~14.8M to ~14.3M BTC. Higher real yields through much of 2025 raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, keeping bitcoin more correlated with equities while gold benefited from reserve and hedging flows. For traders: expect elevated volatility and rotation between safe havens (gold) and risk assets (crypto); short-term pressure on BTC versus gold is likely, particularly if rate and geopolitical uncertainty persist. The long-term investment narrative for bitcoin remains intact, but cyclical dynamics favor gold for reserve and risk-hedge flows. This summary is informational and not investment advice.
Bearish
Short-term bearish for BTC: The news highlights a sizable rotation into gold driven by central bank purchases, record gold ETF inflows, rising geopolitical risk and higher real yields—factors that raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin. Spot-BTC ETF AUM decline and documented selling by long-term holders (300k BTC in October; >500k BTC in H2) increase supply-side pressure. Together these point to near-term downward or sideways pressure on BTC prices relative to gold and elevated volatility. Long-term neutral-to-bullish nuance: Bitcoin still posted positive returns in 2025 and retains structural demand drivers (ETF adoption, long-term thesis). Thus, while cyclical forces favor gold now and imply short-term bearish pressure on BTC, the story does not constitute a structural repudiation of bitcoin’s long-term outlook.