BTC Long-Term Holders Sold $2.4B as ETF Flows Plunge
On-chain reports say BTC “most committed” long-term holders (held 155+ days) sold about $2.4B in two days. The selling is linked to rising supply from holders who acquired coins above $90,000, including 26% of all BTC sold in the last 30 days originating from that higher-cost cohort.
The moves come alongside a ~12% week-to-date drop from an October all-time high above $126,000. Spot Bitcoin ETF net assets reportedly fell to $82.83B from $107.8B, indicating large institutional outflows.
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel highlights a behavioral shift: long-term holder inactivity in Feb–Apr turned into net selling as BTC approached local cycle lows. The LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) has moved below 1.0, suggesting a meaningful share of long-term holders is selling at a loss. Glassnode-derived research estimates 39–43% of BTC supply is underwater, approaching the 50–55% range seen at historical cycle lows (Jan 2015, Dec 2018, Nov 2022).
Engel frames this as “top-buyer capitulation,” implying BTC’s bear market may be late-stage. Still, with whale balances shrinking and profit-taking rising, the near-term risk is continued downside volatility even if a bottom is forming. For traders, the key watch items are BTC ETF flow stabilization and whether LTH-SOPR can hold near-loss territory without accelerating further.
(Keyword focus: BTC, BTC.)
Bearish
This is bearish for near-term positioning because BTC long-term holder capitulation is happening alongside falling spot Bitcoin ETF net assets—historically, large ETF outflows plus LTH profit-ratio deterioration often coincide with extended drawdowns rather than an immediate V-shaped reversal. LTH-SOPR moving sub-1.0 signals that loss-selling is underway; that typically keeps selling pressure alive until supply is fully cleared.
That said, the article also notes signals consistent with late-cycle bottoms (underwater supply approaching prior-cycle low zones). In similar past cycles, “capitulation” late in the bear market can mark a transition, but the timing is crucial: bottoms often require ETF flow stabilization and/or a period of sideways digestion after the sell-off.
So the likely impact is: short-term—continued volatility and risk-off bias; long-term—higher probability that downside is nearing exhaustion, but confirmation will depend on BTC ETF flows and whether long-term holder selling slows.