BTC rally driven by perpetuals as spot sells surge
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen toward the $79,000 area, but new on-chain and derivatives signals suggest the move is more speculative than demand-led. The key concern is a divergence between perpetual futures and spot activity.
Perpetual futures demand has accelerated to the highest level since Oct 2025, while spot demand remains weak. The article cites the Spot and Perpetual Futures Demand Growth metric showing leveraged positions leading the rally. A similar pattern occurred in January: perpetual demand surged, BTC later peaked near $98,000, then entered a prolonged correction.
Spot market flows also tilt bearish. Exchange netflow data shows supply dominance: in the past 48 hours, more than $239 million in BTC has been sent to exchanges beyond what buyers absorbed. Over the week, total spot selling is about $342 million. Liquidation heatmap scenarios add two near-term paths: BTC could pull back toward the $76,000 buy-side liquidity zone, or extend toward $80,000 where sell orders cluster.
The article also notes earlier structural warning signs: early bull-market crossover signals tied to realized prices are absent, and network activity has trended lower despite rising prices. Some analysts argue the broader bear cycle may still be in play for another five to six months, implying BTC strength could be temporary.
For traders, the focus should be on BTC perpetual funding/leverage risk, potential liquidation cascades, and whether spot buying can reclaim momentum.
Bearish
这则消息对市场的直接含义是：BTC上涨缺乏“现货买盘”的坚实支撑，而是由永续合约的杠杆需求推动，因此回撤/清算风险上升。文章用两个关键背离来支撑看空判断：第一，永续需求（自2025年10月以来最高）持续加速，但现货需求保持低迷，意味着价格更依赖交易行为而非真实资金流入；第二，交易所净流入与现货卖压显著（48小时超2.39亿美元、近一周约3.42亿美元的卖出），在价格走高时仍出现“供给主导”。
从历史类比看，文章提到1月出现过相同结构：永续需求先拉升，BTC随后在接近98,000美元见顶并进入较长回调。这种“永续先行—现货跟不上”的局面往往会在资金拥挤或波动放大时触发被动去杠杆。
短期方面，若BTC在高波动环境下遇到反向现货流（卖盘继续压制），可能先走向文中提到的关键区域：76,000美元附近的买盘流动性（也可能伴随永续端平仓引发的清算瀑布），或在80,000美元附近遇到卖单墙后回落。长期方面，若结构性牛市确认信号仍缺失（如已实现价格交叉、网络活动与价格不同步），则这波强势更可能被交易者视作阶段性反弹，而不是趋势性拐点，市场稳定性偏弱。
因此，整体更接近“高杠杆驱动的脆弱反弹”，更利于风险管理而非追多。