BTC Plunges Below $60K: Bybit Points to Jobs, ETF Outflows
Bybit’s Options Weekly Review says BTC’s worst single-week drop since the FTX crash was not “random panic,” but a structural breakdown building for weeks. In the week ending June 8, BTC fell from about $73,760 to $59,130, briefly triggering extreme oversold conditions despite dip-buying and short-covering pushing price back above ~$61,000.
Key drivers cited: stronger U.S. jobs data reigniting rate-hike fears; record outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs; and Strategy selling 32 BTC for about $2.5M, challenging its “never sell BTC” narrative.
On technicals, ETH RSI fell to 12.78—the most extreme oversold reading in history—while BTC RSI dropped to 15.45. Bybit frames this as a market-wide capitulation signal, but stresses it does not confirm a bottom.
Options market signals showed fear: put options were delivered after the technical breakdown, and the Deribit Volatility Index (DVOL) jumped from ~35 (historic lows) to ~55, then eased toward ~48. Bybit interprets the DVOL spike as downside traders gaining a “double tailwind” from falling price and rising implied volatility, while the subsequent pullback suggests the initial shock is being absorbed.
Bottom line for traders: BTC is in extreme oversold territory, but ETF outflows and macro (rates) still need to stabilize before a sustained bullish reversal is confirmed.
Bearish
Bybit highlights that BTC’s breakdown is tied to overlapping negative catalysts: renewed rate-hike fears from stronger U.S. jobs, continued spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, and a credibility shock after Strategy sold BTC. Even with extreme RSI levels and a DVOL spike that often precedes bounces, the report explicitly says there is no reversal confirmation yet. Historically, markets that enter capitulation/oversold conditions can bounce sharply, but sustained trend reversals typically require (1) ETF flows to stabilize and (2) macro-rate expectations to stop worsening. Here, both conditions are still unresolved, so the near-term bias leans bearish (risk remains elevated), while the oversold readings may support volatility-driven rebounds without ending the downtrend.