BTC Price Prediction: Chinese Miner Sees Strategy mNAV Warning of $42K–$44K Lows by Late 2026
Chinese mining veteran Jiang Zhuoer says Bitcoin (BTC) may bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 in late 2026. His forecast links timing to Strategy’s mNAV (MSTR), a metric tracking investor sentiment: Strategy stock price versus BTC value per share.
Jiang points to Strategy’s mNAV falling to 0.72, near the ~0.70 level seen during the 2022 bear market. He argues that a low mNAV often arrives before BTC’s final cycle low, leaving room for another leg down. In 2022, mNAV bottomed in May while BTC was above $31,000, but BTC continued dropping for months and eventually traded near $15,500 in November.
Using a long-term model based on BTC’s four-year cycles, Jiang projects a bear-market low around Oct 31, 2026, with the broader estimate for BTC around $42,000–$44,000. He emphasizes timing accuracy over exact price.
Jiang also discloses a cautious trading stance: reduced spot exposure and entered short positions, expecting additional downside before conditions improve. The view is presented as one analyst’s outlook, not a confirmed outcome.
Traders are likely to watch BTC price action alongside Strategy’s mNAV trend for signs of whether history repeats.
Bearish
This is a bearish-leaning outlook for BTC because the cited indicator (Strategy’s mNAV) is suggesting sentiment has entered a depressed phase and, historically, mNAV lows have preceded BTC’s final cycle low by several months. Jiang Zhuoer explicitly expects another downswing before the market stabilizes, and he personally reduced spot exposure and opened shorts—actions that can reinforce a risk-off stance among traders.
The key trading takeaway is not only the target range ($42K–$44K) but the timing logic: mNAV≈0.70–0.72 has been treated as an early-warning signal, not the bottom itself. In 2022, this pattern lined up with a delayed BTC bottom, implying potential follow-through selling after any near-term relief rallies.
However, because the forecast is one analyst’s view and not a confirmed macro or on-chain catalyst, the impact on market stability is likely gradual rather than immediate. In the short term, traders may fade rallies and tighten risk. In the long term (late 2026), the narrative could increase interest in hedging and staged accumulation approaches—especially if BTC remains highly sensitive to liquidity and institutional demand.