BTC ’Roadmap to Bottom’: $58.7K Binance Deposit Cost Basis Now Key Support
New on‑chain analysis from CryptoQuant contributor Burak Kesmeci identifies four realized‑price levels that form a “roadmap to the bottom” for Bitcoin (BTC). Key levels: Binance user deposit realized price at $58,700, Bitcoin’s overall realized price at $54,700, older whales’ realized price at $41,600, and newer whales’ cost basis previously at $88,700. Kesmeci highlights $58.7K as the next critical support between spot and Bitcoin’s broader realized price — if BTC falls below newer whales’ cost basis, the realized prices historically act as the next test. CryptoQuant data shows unrealized losses now affect 46% of BTC supply, the highest since the end of the 2022 bear market, and realized losses exceeded 30,000 BTC at one point during the recent pullback. Analysts note this rapid increase in supply held at a loss signals capitulation-like behaviour, though realized losses remain below 2022 extremes. Implications for traders: monitor the $58.7K Binance deposit RP and $54.7K Bitcoin RP as potential support zones; rising realized/unrealized loss metrics increase downside risk and may prompt short‑term volatility and capitulation. This is not investment advice.
Bearish
The analysis points to mounting downside risk. Key on‑chain metrics — realized prices and the share of supply at unrealized loss — indicate the market is testing structural supports rather than showing fresh bullish demand. Binance’s deposit realized price at $58.7K is the nearest major support; if that fails, BTC is likely to test the broader realized price at $54.7K and then lower whale cost bases, which historically corresponds with deeper corrections. The rapid rise to 46% of supply at unrealized loss and >30,000 BTC of realized losses are classic capitulation signals that tend to amplify volatility and selling pressure in the short term. In the medium to long term, realized‑price floors can act as durable support once capitulation ends, potentially setting the stage for accumulation. But until the market shows sustained buying above these realized price zones and unrealized‑loss metrics decline, the immediate bias is bearish. This assessment aligns with past cycles (e.g., 2022) where breached whale cost bases and rising realized losses preceded extended drawdowns.