BTC-to-Gold Ratio Hits Record Low — Is Bitcoin’s Bear Cycle Over?
The BTC-to-Gold valuation ratio fell to its lowest level on record after a 14-month decline, prompting analysts to question whether Bitcoin has completed a full bear cycle relative to gold. Data shows Bitcoin peaked against gold in December 2024, nearly a year before its USD all-time high in October 2025, indicating sustained underperformance versus the precious metal. Technical indicators amplify the concern: the weekly RSI on the BTC-to-Gold ratio reached record lows, matching readings seen at previous cycle bottoms (e.g., 2013–2015, 2017–2019, 2021–2022). Analysts note that BTC-to-Gold bottoms historically precede multi-year uptrends, so current extreme RSI levels may signal an approaching long-term shift. The narrative suggests that strong dollar-denominated Bitcoin prices in 2025 were influenced by gains in gold and silver, masking real-asset underperformance. Traders are watching the ratio for confirmation of a bottom and potential re-entry signals; a confirmed low could mark the start of a multi-year Bitcoin outperformance versus gold. Primary keywords: BTC-to-Gold ratio, Bitcoin vs gold, BTC RSI. Secondary/semantic keywords: BTC valuation, safe-haven assets, market bottom, technical indicators.
Neutral
The BTC-to-Gold ratio hitting a record low is a meaningful cross-asset signal rather than an outright directional trigger for spot BTC prices. Reasons for a neutral classification: 1) Bear-cycle signal vs gold: The prolonged 14-month decline and record-low weekly RSI match past cycle bottoms, which historically preceded multi-year BTC outperformance versus gold — a bullish long-term implication for relative strength. 2) Dollar-denominated nuance: BTC remained near USD highs in 2025, so dollar-based traders may see little immediate bearish pressure. The apparent contradiction (weak vs gold but strong vs USD) suggests market re-pricing driven by gold/silver moves rather than a pure BTC fundamental shift. 3) Short-term uncertainty: Extreme RSI readings can mark cycle ends, but confirmation (a reversal in the BTC-to-Gold ratio, higher lows, and improving momentum) is required before traders can act decisively. 4) Trader implications: In the short term, expect mixed reactions — mean-reversion trades comparing BTC and gold, cautious positioning, and greater sensitivity to macro headlines (rates, inflation, precious metals). In the medium-to-long term, if the ratio stabilizes and reverses as in prior cycles, it could be bullish for BTC relative to gold and attract allocation flows into crypto. Conversely, a continued decline would be bearish for BTC real-asset valuation and could pressure risk appetite. Historical parallels: 2013–2015, 2017–2019 and 2021–2022 BTC-to-Gold bear phases transitioned into multi-year recoveries after similar RSI troughs, supporting the view that the current extreme may presage a major cycle bottom — but only upon confirmation.