BTC Treasury Companies’ Sell-Off Triggers Price Domino Effect
Cheshire Capital projects that over the next 6–12 months, up to ten BTC treasury companies—holding BTC at mNAV multiples between 1× and 5×—could sequentially sell coins to repurchase shares under price declines and shareholder pressure. Initial low-quality firms breach 1× mNAV and offload at $120k, driving BTC down to $115k. Falling mNAV forces mid-tier companies to sell at $100k, then high-quality players like MSTR and 3350 capitulate around 1.2×, pushing BTC to $90k and then $80k. Final large-holder liquidations could send prices toward $70k. This sell-off domino effect undermines short-term defensive strategies, rewarding only steadfast holders such as MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor. Mid-tier firms risk selling at average lows of $75k. ETH treasury companies, with concentrated holdings by BMNR and SBET, may better coordinate to avoid cascading sell-offs. Traders should monitor mNAV levels, sell volumes, and buyback announcements for bearish signals and potential entry points at lower support levels.
Bearish
Cheshire Capital’s analysis of BTC treasury companies outlines a bearish sell-off domino effect: as initial sales to defend mNAV trigger price drops, further liquidations follow in a feedback loop. This mirrors the Archegos collapse, where margin calls and rapid unwind spiked volatility and drove asset prices sharply lower. Early BTC treasury sell-offs at $120k could push prices to $115k, forcing mid-tier companies to liquidate at $100k–$90k, and eventually major holders like MicroStrategy to sell at $80k–$70k. Lack of coordination among BTC treasury companies exacerbates the cascade, in contrast to ETH treasury firms (BMNR, SBET) which might avoid such a spiral through agreement. Short-term traders should expect heightened volatility and continued downward pressure as sell orders outweigh demand. Long-term investors may find value at lower support levels, but near-term market stability remains compromised until treasury sell-off pressures subside.