Analyst: Bitcoin Could Fall After Corporate Treasury ‘Unwind’ Fears
Canadian mining investor Frank Giustra warned Bitcoin (BTC) may trade lower if corporate BTC treasuries unwind, saying he’d wait for a deeper discount before buying. Corporate treasuries (led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy with ~672,497 BTC) hold about 4.9% of supply; ETFs hold ~7%. Two main risks could trigger treasury selling: a potential MSCI index exclusion that may force redemptions (Polymarket places a ~75% chance of MSCI delisting by Q1 2026) and compressed mNAV valuations that could compel firms to liquidate BTC or raise debt. Grayscale counters this view, noting Strategy has a reserve fund and forecasting that treasury firms are unlikely to be a major source of selling pressure in 2026; market-implied odds that Strategy will dump BTC were under 30% at the time of reporting. Trader Cryp Nuevo suggested BTC’s correction may find support near $74,000 — a historical level aligned with past mining-cost-driven pullback floors. Implication: a treasury unwind could produce a buying opportunity, but downside may be limited if support around $74k holds.
Bearish
The article highlights credible catalysts for selling pressure: corporate BTC treasuries holding ~4.9% of supply face two clear risks (MSCI exclusion and compressed mNAV) that could force liquidations. Market sentiment is skewed toward concern — a Polymarket-implied ~75% chance of MSCI delisting by Q1 2026 is notable. While Grayscale argues treasuries are unlikely to drive major selling (citing Strategy’s reserve fund) and market odds of an immediate dump are below 30%, the existence of these structural risks increases downside tail risk. Historically, forced corporate selling or large-holder liquidations have amplified corrections (e.g., occasions where concentrated seller activity coincided with broader market weakness). Short-term impact: increased volatility and downside pressure as traders price in potential redemptions and mNAV-driven actions; possible sharp but localized sell-offs if a major treasury announces liquidation. Long-term impact: if treasuries are recapitalized, merged, or reserves prove sufficient, the threat diminishes and markets may stabilize — limiting ultimate drawdown (analyst-projected support near $74k). Overall, the immediate inference for traders is heightened risk management: consider tightened stops, reduced leverage, and watch MSCI news, mNAV disclosures, and treasury filings for early signs of forced selling.