Bull market signals: rising earnings lift stocks amid global strength
In a Pomp Podcast, macro investor Jordi Visser argues the market is showing bull market resilience, even with elevated valuations and ongoing economic worries. He says the market reacts strongly to good news and barely moves on bad news—typical bull market behavior.
Visser expects only consolidation or minor pullbacks near term, not a major shock, especially if oil prices and inflation do not surge. He highlights rising earnings as a key driver: stocks can look “cheaper” on valuation metrics when earnings growth continues.
For breadth, he cites the S&P equal-weighted index reaching an all-time high, which he frames as strength beyond a narrow set of AI-related stocks. He also points to the Buffett indicator being more bullish than bearish, supported by improving earnings and profit margins.
A central theme is profit-margin momentum in the tech sector, which Visser says has led margin growth for roughly 17 years. He ties this to a broader “global generational bull market,” reinforced by strength in the MSCI World Index ex-US (also at an all-time high) and solid performances in economies such as Korea and Japan.
On consumer sentiment, Visser notes a decline in the savings rate can signal optimism about jobs and the stock market. He also emphasizes institutional participation, particularly pension funds, as a stabilizing force in equity markets.
Overall, Visser’s thesis is that a bull market is supported by earnings, margins, and cross-country market strength—suggesting traders should watch earnings surprises, inflation/oil impulses, and global breadth for confirmation.
Bullish
The article is macro-focused and not directly about specific crypto assets. However, it signals broadly risk-on conditions that can lift trading sentiment across high-beta assets, including crypto. Visser’s bull market thesis rests on three trader-relevant pillars: (1) earnings are rising, which supports valuations even when headline valuation looks expensive; (2) market breadth is strong (S&P equal-weighted at highs), suggesting rallies are not confined to one theme; (3) profit margins—especially in the tech sector—are improving, reinforced by institutional support (pension funds) and global breadth (MSCI ex-US at highs).
Historically, periods where earnings growth improves breadth and margin trends tend to coincide with sustained risk appetite and fewer “liquidity shock” events. In the short term, he expects consolidation/minor pullbacks—consistent with typical post-rally digestion when rates/inflation/oil do not re-accelerate. In the long term, if earnings and margins keep surprising to the upside and inflation doesn’t break higher, traders usually rotate into broader exposure, which can underpin crypto market stability via higher overall liquidity and correlation to equities.
Crypto implication: watch for “risk-on confirmation” (equity breadth + improving earnings expectations). If instead oil/inflation jumps or earnings disappoint, the bull market narrative can flip quickly, increasing downside correlation and volatility in crypto.