Cantor Fitzgerald: Bitcoin in an Early Crypto Winter but Institutional Adoption Strengthens Foundations
Investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald warns the crypto market may be entering an early “crypto winter” within Bitcoin’s four‑year cycle, with BTC facing continued downside pressure near current levels (~$87k) and the potential to test large institutional breakeven levels (e.g., MicroStrategy ~$75k). Analyst Brett Knoblauch highlights that BTC is roughly 85 days from its peak and only modestly above corporate cost bases, which could weigh on sentiment and reduce trust‑product accumulation. However, Cantor expects this downturn to be milder and more institutionally driven than prior retail-driven crashes. Key structural positives noted that should reduce systemic risk and support longer‑term adoption include: rapid growth in real‑world asset (RWA) tokenization (on‑chain RWA value rose to ~$18.5B in 2025 with Cantor projecting >$50B by 2026), rising DEX market share—especially in perpetuals—improvements in DeFi and on‑chain prediction markets, and clearer U.S. regulation via the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act which shifts certain spot oversight to the CFTC under decentralization thresholds. Traders should watch institutional cost levels, premium compression in trusts, and flows into/onchain RWA and DEX liquidity. Near term, price softness and sentiment risk are likely; medium‑to‑long term, deeper institutional participation and stronger infrastructure may reduce volatility from retail liquidations and change market dynamics.
Bearish
The combined reports indicate a near‑term bearish bias for BTC. Cantor highlights that BTC has already retraced from recent highs, sits only modestly above large institutional cost bases (e.g., MicroStrategy ~ $75k), and could test those levels — an event likely to pressure sentiment and reduce trust‑product accumulation. These factors point to downside risk and premium compression in the short term. Offsetting factors—broader institutional adoption, growth in RWA tokenization, rising DEX/perpetuals market share, improved DeFi infrastructure, and clearer U.S. regulation (CLARITY)—are structural positives that reduce the likelihood of a violent, retail‑driven crash and support a more gradual market adjustment. Therefore: short term — bearish (price softness, sentiment risk, potential testing of institutional breakevens); medium/long term — neutral to constructive as infrastructure and institutional flows may stabilize markets and lower retail‑driven volatility.