Cardano tumbles: ADA down 58% YTD as on-chain metrics and futures interest drop
Cardano (ADA) posted weak Christmas price action as the token trades about 58% lower year-to-date and has lost roughly 15% in December alone. Founder Charles Hoskinson denied claims on X that he sold ADA at prior peaks after posting a holiday message. Technicals show ADA trapped in a downtrend, struggling to reclaim $0.36; critical support sits at $0.338–$0.34 with downside targets of $0.30–$0.32 if that zone breaks. Resistance lies at $0.375–$0.38 and $0.40–$0.41. On-chain indicators reinforce bearish pressure: DeFi TVL on Cardano fell from $544M in August to $215.5M, stablecoin market cap on-chain slid from $40.48M in November to $37.68M, and futures open interest dropped from $1.72B in October to $651M. These deteriorating metrics point to lower user participation, weaker liquidity and reduced leveraged interest—factors that typically amplify downside risk for traders.
Bearish
The combined picture of a large year-to-date decline (≈58%), fresh monthly losses, failure to reclaim key resistance, falling DeFi TVL, reduced stablecoin supply on-chain and a steep drop in futures open interest points to deteriorating liquidity and waning trader participation. Technically, ADA remains in a downtrend with a clearly defined critical support ($0.338–$0.34); a breakdown would likely trigger accelerated selling toward $0.30–$0.32 as stop-losses and algorithmic sellers execute. Lower OI typically reduces the likelihood of strong, sustained rallies because there’s less leveraged buying to fuel momentum. Historically, similar combinations—declining TVL, shrinking OI and failed technical recoveries—have produced extended consolidation or further downside in altcoins (examples: past declines in SOL and AVAX during 2022–2023 cycles). Short-term implication: higher volatility and increased downside risk; traders should use tight risk controls, watch the $0.338–$0.34 zone and consider that bounces may be weak. Long-term implication: if fundamentals (TVL, developer activity, ecosystem growth) don’t recover, baseline market interest may stay depressed, keeping upward breakouts unlikely until on-chain metrics stabilize and futures interest returns.