Cardano (ADA) risks retesting $0.32 as bearish derivatives data intensifies
ADA has lost 7% over the past seven days and plunged 35% during November, slipping below $0.40. Cardano futures open interest fell 6.82% in 24 hours to $693M, signalling reduced trader participation. The OI-weighted funding rate is -0.0057% and the long-to-short ratio is 0.8765, with shorts making up 53.29% of derivatives contracts — indicating sell-side dominance. Technicals are bearish: daily RSI ~28 (near oversold) and MACD in negative territory. If the daily candle closes below the Nov 21 low of $0.3876, ADA could retest the Sept 16, 2024 low at $0.3264 (~$0.32). Conversely, holding above $0.3876 could allow a reclaim of $0.40. Key keywords: Cardano, ADA price, open interest, funding rate, RSI, MACD, derivatives.
Bearish
Data from derivatives markets shows clear sell-side pressure: falling open interest (-6.82% to $693M), a negative OI-weighted funding rate (-0.0057%), and a long-to-short ratio under 1 with shorts at 53.29%. These metrics indicate traders are risk-off and positioning for downside. Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook — daily RSI around 28 (near oversold) and MACD in negative territory — increasing probability of continued selling. A daily close below $0.3876 would likely trigger momentum-driven liquidations and a retest of the September 2024 low near $0.3264 ($0.32). Historically, similar setups (declining OI with negative funding and bearish RSI/MACD) have accelerated drops as short accumulation and reduced liquidity amplify moves. Short-term impact: elevated volatility and downside risk, potential quick retest of $0.32 if support breaks. Long-term impact: depends on market-wide risk appetite and macro catalysts; a sustained recovery requires stabilization in derivatives (rising OI, neutral/positive funding) and bullish reversal on RSI/MACD. Traders should monitor OI, funding rates, long-short ratios, and the $0.3876 support level for actionable signals.