Cardano (ADA) Shorts Surge as Funding Rates Hit Multi-Year High
Cardano (ADA) remains under $0.30 and trades around $0.26 as bearish sentiment intensifies. According to Santiment data, ADA’s weekly shorting activity has reached its highest level in years, with Binance funding rates showing the short-to-long ratio at the greatest level since June 2023.
Traders appear positioned for further downside, and the article notes that funding rates often move in the direction traders least expect. Meanwhile, ADA’s MVRV (365-day) has turned sharply negative, with the average active wallet showing an estimated return of about -43%, far below the historical norm. Historically, such deeply negative MVRV readings can coincide with potential buy/opportunity zones and raise the odds of a price bottom forming or approaching.
Despite recent headlines that the US SEC classified some digital assets including Cardano as a commodity (not a security), bullish follow-through has not returned. With the short build-up, the key trading risk is continuation to the downside versus a possible squeeze before any rebound in ADA.
Bearish
偏空的直接原因是：ADA 的做空仓位在短期明显加速。文章引用 Santiment 数据称，Binance 资金费率显示 ADA 的短/长仓比自 2023 年 6 月以来处于最高水平，这通常意味着市场共识偏向继续下行，短期价格更容易被空头主导。
但该消息并非纯粹看空，因为 ADA 的 MVRV（365 天）约 -43% 被描述为“机会/底部接近”的信号。这意味着若空头在缺乏足够新卖压的情况下持续挤入，可能在流动性或触发条件出现后引发反向剧烈波动（类似过去“资金费率过度偏离 + 估值指标转负”的组合常带来短线挤压）。
综合来看：
- 短期：资金费率与做空强度更像是顺势指标，仍偏向下行或高波动；
- 中长期：若 MVRV 负值持续并出现反转迹象，底部逻辑可能逐步增强，届时挤压后反弹空间会被交易者重新评估。