Cardano (ADA) extends slide toward $0.15 as retail demand fades
Cardano (ADA) is extending its decline and trading near $0.16, after last week’s sharp ~30% sell-off. The market remains under selling pressure as investor confidence weakens and retail participation fades, keeping the near-term outlook bearish for Cardano.
On-chain data cited by Santiment points to a possible exhaustion of long-term holder selling. In early June, dormant ADA supply re-entered circulation in large spikes. Several instances saw dormant supply spent exceed 20B ADA, culminating in a 40.6B ADA movement on June 9—the largest spike recorded during the current sell-off. This also interrupted wallet age growth, indicating dormant addresses have become active again. While additional long-term selling is still possible, such “capitulation-like” activity often precedes market bottoms.
Derivatives data reinforces the weaker bid from traders. CoinGlass reports ADA futures open interest (OI) has fallen to $348.55M, the lowest since November 2024, down from $585.35M on May 12. Falling OI typically signals traders are closing leveraged positions and adopting a more risk-averse stance.
Technically, ADA is slightly below $0.16 with RSI around 39, nearing oversold conditions, while MACD remains below the zero line—both suggest sellers still control the trend. A breakdown below $0.1486 could open the door to a deeper move toward $0.10, while a recovery would need to reclaim key resistance zones (including roughly $0.1745 and later $0.2000+).
Bearish
The news is bearish for ADA because both positioning and market participation indicators point to weak demand. Retail participation is described as fading, while derivatives open interest in ADA futures has hit a multi-month low—often a sign that leveraged buyers are exiting, which limits the ability for a sustained rebound. Although on-chain dormant-supply spikes could indicate capitulation risk among long-term holders, the article treats it as “possibly nearing exhaustion,” not a confirmed reversal.
In the short term, falling OI plus bearish momentum (RSI not yet showing a clear reversal and MACD below zero) typically keeps rallies fragile, making break levels like $0.1486 more vulnerable. In the medium/long term, if further long-term selling truly exhausts—as dormant supply reactivation suggests—ADA could form a base and recover after a bottom, similar to past patterns where capitulation-like on-chain activity precedes stabilization. However, until ADA reclaims key resistance zones (around $0.1745, then $0.2000+), the prevailing structure remains risk of continued downside.