SuperTrend Flips Bearish on Cardano Weekly — Analyst Warns of ~80% Downside Risk
Cardano (ADA) has seen renewed downside pressure after the weekly SuperTrend indicator flipped bearish, flagged by analyst Ali Martinez. ADA traded near $0.40 following declines of roughly 6% in 24 hours and about 7–10% over the past week. Martinez points to the prior weekly SuperTrend flip in December 2021 — after three consecutive weekly red candles — which preceded an ~80–84% fall from near $1.38 to about $0.22 by June 2023. By that logic, a similar sustained bearish phase could push ADA toward early‑2020 lows near $0.064. Technical context: ADA remains inside a multi‑year descending channel and is trading close to the channel’s lower boundary, a level some traders view as a potential accumulation zone. Counterarguments from other analysts cite bullish scenarios: Quantum Ascend projects an impulsive upside with conservative targets above $5 and extended targets near $10 if momentum returns; Captain Faibik is accumulating with a medium‑term target around $0.70. The article also notes growing trader interest in newer meme‑style projects such as Maxi Doge (MAXI), signaling some capital rotation away from established altcoins. Traders should weigh the SuperTrend weekly signal — which uses ATR to mark trend shifts — against broader market conditions: a true retest of 2020 lows would likely require prolonged, market‑wide risk‑off sentiment. This content is informational and not financial advice.
Bearish
The weekly SuperTrend flip to bearish is a meaningful technical signal for traders because it uses ATR to identify trend direction on a timeframe that captures structural moves. Historically, ADA’s last weekly SuperTrend flip in December 2021 preceded a sharp, prolonged decline, which supports the view that a similar signal increases downside risk. Current price action—trading near the lower boundary of a long-term descending channel—adds to the bearish bias, as break or hold below that boundary would likely trigger further selling. Short-term implications: elevated volatility, higher probability of downside tests and stop‑loss cascades near support levels; traders should tighten risk controls and consider reduced long exposure or hedges. Medium-to-long-term implications: a full retest of early‑2020 lows (~$0.064) would require broad market risk‑off conditions, not just ADA‑specific weakness; alternatively, if market sentiment and momentum return, bullish scenarios (targets cited at $0.70, $5+, or higher) remain possible but depend on a sustained macro and on‑chain recovery. Overall, the signal increases downside risk for ADA in the near term while keeping longer‑term outcomes conditional on marketwide drivers.