Cardano (ADA) Holds $0.25–$0.27 as Short Selling Surges
Cardano (ADA) is consolidating around $0.27 as buyers defend the $0.25–$0.27 support zone while short sellers increase positions. Blockchain analytics from Santiment noted active ADA wallets’ annual average returns have been negative, a pattern sometimes seen during accumulation periods, though it does not confirm an imminent reversal.
Derivatives data is a key driver: ADA funding rates have shifted in favor of shorts, with short selling reaching its highest level since mid-year. This setup can trigger sharp counter-moves if price stabilizes. On-chain and market commentary suggest larger players may be opening longs at depressed levels.
Technically, analysts (Ali Charts) point to the $0.25–$0.27 range as the “launchpad” for prior rallies, with historical rebounds of roughly 85% and 200% after testing support. Elliott Wave framing implies ADA may still be in the later stage of a broader correction. If the range fails, a move toward $0.21 is possible, where downside selling pressure may ease.
Upside resistance is seen near $0.50, then $0.70–$0.80. Momentum signals such as MACD indicate selling pressure is easing. Short-term forecasts cited by TapTools project a return toward $0.27, then $0.37 (within weeks), and up to $0.42 (over ~3 months), assuming support holds.
In the last 24 hours, ADA is up about 2.7%, but it remains below prior peak levels. Traders will likely watch whether ADA can reclaim resistance and hold the $0.25–$0.27 support to confirm a gradual recovery.
Neutral
该消息对交易的核心信号是“支撑被测试 + 做空仓位加大 + 卖压减弱”。从短期看,ADA资金费率转偏空且做空达到年中以来高位,通常意味着市场情绪偏 bearish,并提高了在价格企稳时出现短期急涨(空头回补)的概率;但Elliott Wave 仍指向更大修正的后段,若0.25–0.27失守,0.21可能触发进一步下行,风险在于支撑破位会迅速恶化。与过去多次“高做空+价格在关键区间横盘”类似,最可能的路径是先发生剧烈波动再决定方向:站稳支撑则偏向震荡上行,否则延续回撤。
中长期方面,文章提到链上钱包年度回报长期为负、并出现“抄底型多头可能增加”的线索,这通常更利于积累而非立刻反转;因此更符合“等待确认”的交易策略。总体上,市场稳定性取决于ADA能否持续守住0.25–0.27并把MACD改善转化为更高的反转级别突破(如接近0.50以上)。