Cardano Falls 70% as TVL Drops 36% — Hoskinson Pins Recovery on Midnight and RealFi

Published: 2025-12-01 03:09:27 |

Cardano (ADA) has fallen about 70% from its December 2023 peak and is trading near $0.41 as of the report, amid a broader crypto market downturn. Total Value Locked (TVL) on Cardano declined roughly 36% month-over-month to about $186 million, raising questions about on-chain activity and adoption. Founder Charles Hoskinson remains optimistic, highlighting two upcoming initiatives — Midnight (privacy-focused, zero-knowledge proof features) and RealFi (real-world asset tokenization) — as potential catalysts to attract institutional developers and increase TVL. Technical indicators show ADA is oversold (RSI ~28) and tracing a falling wedge pattern; a break above $0.45 could target $0.60 according to Fibonacci retracement levels. On-chain metrics note increased accumulation by holders during the dip, while moving averages confirm a bearish phase. Analysts warn low TVL and weak daily activity have fueled “ghost chain” narratives and could pressure Cardano’s ranking if trends continue. Traders should monitor project launches, whale activity, TVL trends and key technical levels for short-term rebound signals and longer-term adoption evidence.

Neutral

The report combines significant negative metrics (70% price decline, 36% TVL drop) with potential positive catalysts (Midnight and RealFi). Short-term market impact is mixed-to-bearish: the steep price fall, declining TVL and bearish moving averages increase downside risk and may deter momentum traders. Technicals show oversold conditions and a falling wedge pattern, which often lead to mean-reversion rallies; thus, tactical short-term trades could target a relief bounce if ADA breaks above $0.45 with volume. Long-term outlook is conditional: if Midnight and RealFi successfully attract developers, institutional users and meaningful TVL inflows, fundamentals could improve and support a bullish recovery over months. However, similar past scenarios (projects promising upgrades but failing to boost adoption quickly) show that product announcements alone often produce temporary rallies followed by renewed selling unless on-chain metrics and TVL confirm adoption. Therefore the immediate stance is neutral — traders should weigh evidence of real uptake (TVL growth, developer activity, on-chain volume) before shifting to a bullish view.