Celestia (TIA) tumbles ~13% on heavy distribution; next supports $0.47–$0.45
Celestia (TIA) dropped about 13–15% in 24 hours, underperforming the broader market and extending weekly losses to roughly 9%. Price broke key technical levels — a daily close below the 50% Fibonacci at $0.527 and the 30-day SMA (~$0.518) — confirming trend continuation to the downside. Volume surged (reported ~70–136M, a 100–132% rise versus prior), indicating distribution as short-interest and momentum shorts increased while short-term traders trimmed exposure. Momentum indicators show weakening but not capitulation (RSI near 41; hourly MACD bearish but losing intensity). On-chain metrics are mixed: active addresses remain weak and BTC dominance has risen, pressuring altcoin flows; tokenomics have improved since 2023 with inflation easing (~8% → ~2.5%) and major unlocks largely passed, but staking rewards (8–10% APY) still dilute supply when demand is soft. Heatmap liquidity clusters sit above price (roughly $0.63–$0.70), creating potential targets for a short squeeze or relief bounce but also possible sell pressure if those are resting sell orders. Immediate downside targets are $0.473 and $0.45 if $0.56–$0.505 support zone fails; bulls need a daily reclaim above $0.527 (or $0.505 first) to set up a mean reversion toward $0.60. Trading guidance: favor reactive, liquidity-driven setups, manage risk around $0.56 support and monitor volume, on-chain activity and the $0.63–$0.70 liquidity band for confirmation before taking directional positions.
Bearish
The combined updates point to a near-term bearish bias for TIA. Key technical breakdowns (daily close below the 50% Fibonacci at $0.527 and the 30-day SMA) plus a large volume spike indicate distribution rather than accumulation. Momentum indicators (RSI ~41, bearish MACD on hourly) show weakening momentum without capitulation, suggesting continued downside risk but leaving room for relief bounces. On-chain activity is weak and BTC dominance rising diverts capital away from altcoins, reinforcing downside pressure. Although tokenomics have improved — inflation down and major unlocks passed — ongoing staking rewards create supply pressure that can exacerbate declines when demand is muted. Liquidity clusters above price ($0.63–$0.70) create the technical possibility of a short squeeze or bounce, but they are equally likely to act as resistance if populated by sell orders. Traders should therefore expect further downside attempts toward $0.473–$0.45 if key supports fail, and treat rallies as reactive opportunities to reduce risk or short, until clear reclaim of $0.505–$0.527 and improving on-chain/adoption metrics confirm a bullish reversal.