US-China Tariff Tensions and Fed Policy Keep Bitcoin Range-Bound; QCP Capital Warns of Subdued Momentum Amid ETF Outflows
QCP Capital highlights that while recent US Federal Reserve policy kept interest rates unchanged and fueled some optimism, Bitcoin’s trading range remains limited due to persistent US-China tariff tensions and escalating trade disputes. These macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks triggered a reversal in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, ending a six-week run of inflows with $157 million in outflows as Bitcoin dropped below the $110,000 mark. Despite brief rallies by Bitcoin and Ethereum driven by optimism and demand for call options, institutional investors are adopting a risk-off stance, as noted by CoinShares’ James Butterfill. Trading indicators like compressed volatility and flat perpetual funding rates suggest subdued price momentum ahead. Glassnode data reveals ongoing new buyer interest but warns that continued geopolitical uncertainty may dampen sentiment. QCP Capital advises caution, emphasizing that sustained upward moves depend on key policy developments expected after July 8. Until then, traders should expect Bitcoin to remain fundamentally strong but range-bound between $100,000 and $110,000 in June, with limited near-term upside.
Neutral
Renewed US-China tariff tensions and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty have capped Bitcoin’s price within a range, with ETF outflows signaling reduced institutional risk appetite. While underlying demand from new entrants remains, compressed volatility and flat funding rates indicate a period of muted price action and limited short-term momentum. QCP Capital and other market analysts recommend caution until clearer policy direction emerges post July 8. On balance, while Bitcoin’s fundamental strength persists, current global risk factors and market indicators suggest a neutral outlook until more decisive catalysts materialize.