Analysts Forecast Bitcoin to Reach $1.4M by 2035 as Institutional Adoption Drives Long-Term Upside
CF Benchmarks analysts, affiliated with Kraken, published a price-modeling note projecting Bitcoin (BTC) could reach roughly $1.4 million by 2035 under a probability-weighted scenario where BTC captures about one-third of gold’s market cap. Using capital-markets assumptions (expected return, volatility, correlation), the report models conservative, base and optimistic adoption scenarios: a conservative case (BTC captures 16–33% of gold at historical adoption rates) implies roughly $637,000 by 2035; the base, probability-weighted case implies ~ $1.42M; an optimistic bull case—where BTC surpasses gold as the dominant store of value—projects nearly $2.95M. Analysts cite growing institutional adoption, reduced volatility over time, low correlation with major asset classes (linked to sensitivity to fiat debasement), improved regulatory clarity, deeper liquidity and rising institutional recognition as primary drivers. The note also finds that a strategic 2–5% allocation to Bitcoin can materially improve portfolio efficiency. The report references prior high-profile forecasts (eg, Cathie Wood’s earlier $1.2M by 2030 estimate) and stresses the analysis is market commentary, not investment advice.
Bullish
The CF Benchmarks report is fundamentally bullish for BTC price expectations because it ties higher long-term valuations to increased institutional adoption, improved liquidity and regulatory clarity—factors that reduce perceived tail risks and can support higher asset flows into Bitcoin. For traders, the report reinforces a longer-term positive narrative and may increase strategic demand: institutions referencing such models can lead to sustained buy pressure, larger OTC and spot accumulation, and reduced realized volatility over multi-year horizons. Short-term impact may be muted or neutral as the note is forward-looking and high-level; price moves will still respond to macro events, liquidity shocks and on-chain flows. Over the medium-to-long term (months to years), however, the narrative raises the likelihood of structural inflows and a higher valuation baseline, which is bullish for BTC. The recommended 2–5% portfolio allocation thesis may encourage reallocations from cash or traditional assets, supporting sustained demand. Caveats: model outputs depend on adoption assumptions, gold-market comparisons, and macro/regulatory outcomes—any shift in these inputs or large-scale liquidations could counteract the bullish thesis.