CFTC to Allow U.S. Crypto Perpetuals; Guidance on DeFi and Prediction Markets Imminent
CFTC Chair Mike Selig said the agency will soon publish policy guidance to permit compliant launches of crypto perpetual futures in the U.S. and to set standards for decentralized finance (DeFi) developers and prediction markets. Speaking with SEC Chair Paul Atkins at a Milken Institute event, Selig said the CFTC is “working towards getting professional futures… here in the U.S. within the next month or so” and expects an announcement shortly. The initiative is part of a joint regulatory push called Project Crypto, which includes "innovation exceptions" to enable controlled experimentation. Selig said earlier U.S. policy pushed perpetual-futures liquidity offshore and that clearer domestic rules are needed. The CFTC plans to formalize guidance through rulemaking to provide longer-term legal certainty for products and for developers in DeFi and prediction markets (examples cited previously include Polymarket and Kalshi). SEC Chair Atkins cautioned that statutory clarity from Congress remains important after recent court decisions limited agency authority; lawmakers continue negotiating the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, though passage in 2026 is uncertain. Key keywords: CFTC, crypto perpetuals, DeFi, prediction markets, Project Crypto.
Bullish
Permitting compliant crypto perpetual futures in the U.S. and publishing formal guidance reduces regulatory uncertainty—a key barrier that has pushed liquidity offshore. For traders this is likely bullish for perpetual-futures demand and derivatives volumes because U.S. institutional and professional counterparties are more likely to participate when clear rules exist. In the short term, announcements and preparatory filings could spur increased trading, higher open interest, and tighter spreads as liquidity returns to domestic venues. Over the medium to long term, formalized rules and guidance for DeFi developers and prediction markets should improve market infrastructure, custody practices and counterparty confidence, supporting more sustained growth in derivatives activity. Risks that temper the outlook include continued legal uncertainty (court rulings and the uncertain path for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) and the timeline for actual product launches; these could delay benefits or cause volatility around regulatory updates. Overall, the net effect on the relevant crypto markets tied to perpetual futures and on venues offering those products is expected to be positive.